The evaluation of current and future conflicts and Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) constitute the most important parameters in determining defense industry trends. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the increasingly violent conflicts in the Middle East give important indications in this sense. As EDTs, the nine main technologies published by NATO can be a good start. These technologies are Artificial Intelligence (AI), Autonomous Systems, Quantum Technologies, Biotechnology and Technologies to Supplement Human Capabilities, Space, Hypersonic Systems, New Materials and Manufacturing Technologies, Energy and Propulsion, and Next Generation Communication Networks.

Defense Industry Trends are examined below under Battlefield and Technological Trends.

Key Battlefield Defense Industry Trends

Ammunition Production: Although the war in Ukraine initially started as a war of maneuver, it has subsequently turned into a war of attrition. Therefore, mass production of all kinds of war materials, especially ammunition, has gained importance.

Artillery ammunition and weapons of various calibers, especially 155mm ammunition, gained importance. It is stated that most of the casualties on the battlefield are caused by artillery ammunition. Therefore, in addition to the production of ammunition, the design and production of factories and workbenches where ammunition could be produced more efficiently and rapidly gained importance.

Autonomous Systems: The use of autonomous systems on the battlefield is increasing day by day. The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and drones is more widespread than naval and land systems. The use of FPV (First Person View) drones to replace artillery ammunition is highly effective on the battlefield. In addition, Ukraine's success using Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) is noteworthy. The use of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) is becoming increasingly common. Their importance is further enhanced by the fact that the systems are cheap and simple, whereas the industrial-age weapon systems they neutralize are quite expensive. The fact that Ukraine was able to target and hit a base on the Caspian Sea Coast is noteworthy in terms of showing the stage reached by autonomous systems and the developments that may occur in the future.

Due to the success of autonomous systems on the battlefield, Ukraine decided to establish first a “drone army” and then a “robot army”. Units consisting of unmanned systems have increasingly begun to be included in the establishment of armies, and unmanned systems such as tanks, artillery, and air defense have begun to be included in the establishment of armies as a separate specialty or branch.

Air Defense Systems: Threats to air defense continue to increase and diversify. Various UAVs, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, especially kamikazes, have started to saturate air defense systems with different tactics and have started to get effective results. It is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive for air defense systems to detect, identify and neutralize these threats. There are significant problems, especially in detecting and neutralizing drones. In order for air defense systems to be effective against drones in addition to conventional threats, additional measures should be taken and new approaches should be adopted in the design of systems.

Surface-to-surface Missiles: Especially ballistic missiles are being used more effectively. Hypersonic missiles are becoming increasingly widespread. Both the speed and flight trajectory of these missiles make it difficult to take measures. The fact that missiles carry more than one warhead and are used with deception systems increases their effectiveness. Missiles with grenade-carrying warheads can be very effective in the depths of the battlefield, especially against sensitive targets such as airplanes and helicopters.

Combat Engineering Equipment: The rapid laying of minefields and the construction of obstacles and emplacements are becoming more important. The use of automatic mine-laying systems and concrete obstacles to stop counterattacks is an important factor that makes offensive operations difficult. On the other hand, there are increasing studies on mine detection with autonomous systems and opening passages through minefields.

Armored Vehicles: With the effective use of UAVs on the battlefield, the importance of armored vehicles and tanks has decreased and even the assessment that they cannot be used on the battlefield has increased. However, the addition of equipment such as cage armor (Cope Cage), jammers and active defense systems to armored vehicles has led to an increase in their effectiveness on the battlefield again. In addition, the use of armored vehicles with other systems such as Electronic Warfare (E/H) and air defense in combined arms operations increases the effectiveness of armored vehicles.

Electronic Warfare (E/H) and Cyber Defense: In addition to disinformation activities, E/W and cyber defense activities are increasing, especially to prevent autonomous systems. It has become a necessity to consider both capabilities in autonomous system design. The effectiveness of UAVs and drones can be significantly limited by using E/H systems. On the other hand, various methods such as the use of AI and fiber optic cables are being used to overcome the problems. In this context, it would not be wrong to state that technological struggle constitutes an important part of the war.

Digital Age Procurement and Supply Activities: Industrial-age procurement activities are insufficient for the procurement of digital age systems such as autonomous systems, especially in wartime. Industrial-age procurement activities are carried out through long-term, highly expensive, linear and inflexible methods. The procurement of digital systems, on the other hand, requires the establishment of a more flexible and agile system that requires digital engineering, open system architecture, rapid prototyping and repeated exercises.

Key Technological Defense Industry Trends

Artificial Intelligence: AI continues to be increasingly used in defense systems. Image processing continues to be widely used. In addition, Generative AI and Natural Language Model (NLP) methods have added a new dimension to defense systems. In parallel with the development of AI, it will be possible to make much more important comprehensive designs in autonomous systems. The use of AI will increase the effectiveness of systems such as intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, target management, command and control, navigation and autonomy, and reduce the effectiveness of E/H systems on autonomous systems.

At the current stage, there is information that the transition from Narrow AI to General AI, where more functions can be performed, has begun. When evaluated together with other AI methods, General AI will provide much more important capabilities to defense systems and affect the change in the character of the war.

Considering AI together with quantum computing will enable systems to perform much faster operations, as well as additional capabilities such as quantum encryption and target detection.

Space: The progress made by private companies such as SpaceX in space exploration indicates that technological developments in this field will accelerate in the coming period. In this context, developments in the fields of quantum computing, laser communication, material science, propulsion systems and satellite technology will lead to much more significant achievements in space. In this context, the effectiveness of space, which is the last layer of the multi-layered operational environment, in the battlefield will continue to increase.

Next-Generation Communication: The Internet of Things (IoT) is becoming more and more widely used. On the battlefield, the concept of the Internet of Battlefield Things (IoBT) may become more widespread. Radio, which is predominantly used on the battlefield, may be replaced by the development of a tactical internet system that also takes satellite communications into account.

Biotechnology and Technologies to Enhance Human Capabilities: Technological developments focus on medical methods that can help soldiers recover more quickly from battlefield injuries, in addition to their muscle and brain power. The ability of soldiers to carry much more load on the battlefield, to be more physically resilient, and to reinforce their perception and decision-making abilities could be another important development that could change the character of wars. Soldiers equipped with these technologies will not only increase the equality between men and women on the battlefield but will also have the capability to fight robots.

Editor note: This article was issued by The Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), an Istanbul based independent think-tank, website in January,2025